December always invites reflection. This year, many Rochester homeowners made exciting moves despite another season of multiple offers, tight inventory, and interest rates that felt stubbornly high. More and more “For Sale” signs finally started to pop up, and some buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines stepped in more fully.
As we approach the New Year, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) is calling for a meaningful rebound in home sales in 2026. That national outlook is good news, but what does it actually mean for your home, your plans, and your goals here in the Greater Rochester area?
What NAR Is Predicting For 2026
NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, is forecasting a much busier housing market in 2026 after a flat 2025. Nationally, he expects:
- Existing home sales are expected to jump about 14% in 2026, thanks to easing mortgage rates, continued job growth, and a more stable economy.
- Home prices to grow around 4% next year, supported by steady demand and still-limited inventory rather than any kind of fire sale on prices.
- Mortgage rates to edge down modestly, with many forecasts calling for the 30-year fixed rate to hover near the 6% range through 2025 and into 2026, instead of the almost 7% levels we saw earlier.
In short, NAR is calling for a more active market, slightly better affordability, and prices that keep rising.
How 2025 Felt In Rochester
If you live in Monroe County, you probably didn’t need a national forecast to know the market has stayed hot. Local data backs that up.
- Mid-year numbers showed Monroe County’s median sale price around $280,000, up more than 10% from the year before. Most homes sold in about a week, and close to 85% went over asking.
- The Greater Rochester Association of REALTORS® reported record-low inventory through the second quarter of 2025, with only about 1,400 active listings at the end of June. New listings ticked up slightly, but buyers still faced fierce competition.
- National coverage has called Monroe County one of the hottest real estate markets in New York and even ranked it among the most competitive markets in the country.
Behind those numbers are real stories.
First-time buyers stretched their budgets and their patience to win a home. Move-up buyers wondered if it made sense to trade in a 3% mortgage for something in the 6% range. Many older homeowners felt stuck, knowing they could sell quickly but unsure where they would go next in a market with limited choices and high prices.
If 2025 felt intense in the housing market, you were not imagining it.
What NAR’s 2026 Forecast Could Mean For Your Home
National statistics are helpful, but your life happens here in Rochester. Here is how this 2026 forecast may show up for you.
1. More buyers and more listings
A 14% jump in sales nationally suggests more people are buying and selling again. That often translates to:
- More qualified buyers for your home if you decide to list
- A slightly larger pool of homes to choose from if you want to move within the region
For Rochester, where demand has already been strong, a busier national market could look like another year of solid buyer interest, but with a bit more breathing room as inventory improves.
2. Steady price growth, not in a bubble
NAR expects prices to keep rising, not falling. For Rochester homeowners, that likely means continued growth in your equity, just at a more manageable pace than the double-digit spikes we saw recently.
If you are worried that you “bought at the top,” this kind of forecast is reassuring. If you have been waiting for a big price drop, it is a sign that waiting indefinitely may not pay off.
3. Mortgage rates that reward preparation
Rates in the 6% range are still higher than the ultra-low levels of 2020 and 2021, but they are also lower than the near-7% level.
The homeowners who will feel most confident in 2026 will be the ones who use the coming months to get their budget, credit, and financing options in order so they can move quickly when the right opportunity appears.
Setting Real Estate Goals For 2026 As A Rochester Homeowner
A forecast only helps if you use it to set goals and take action. Here are some practical goals to consider as you head into the new year.
Goal 1: Decide your 2–3 year housing plan
Instead of thinking in vague “someday” terms, choose one of these paths for 2026–2028:
- Stay and improve: You like your home and neighborhood, and your focus is comfort and equity.
- Move within Greater Rochester: You want more space, less maintenance, or a different school district.
- Downsize or simplify: You are ready for fewer stairs, lower utility bills, or less yard work.
Once you name your path, it becomes much easier to make specific decisions about savings, projects, and timing.
Goal 2: Know your current equity
Rising prices across Monroe County mean many homeowners have more equity than they realize.
Before you plan any big moves, get a clear picture of what your home is realistically worth today and how much you would walk away with after paying off your mortgage and closing costs. That number can help you:
- Decide if a move-up purchase is within reach
- Budget for a future downsize
- Plan renovations with a realistic return on investment
Sharon Q’s team can prepare a local, up-to-date home value review, using real Rochester comps instead of generic online estimates.
Goal 3: Build a 2026 “home budget” based on realistic rates
Many buyers are still hoping for a return to 3% interest rates. Most experts, including NAR, see rates stabilizing closer to 6%.
Use that reality to your advantage. Work with a lender to:
- See what your monthly payment would look like at different price points with a 6% rate
- Understand how much cash you would need for closing and potential repairs.
- Identify any credit or debt changes that could improve your options.
This kind of planning can turn 2026 from a “wait and see” year into a “ready when it counts” year.
Goal 4: Choose one equity-building project for 2026
If you plan to stay put for at least another year, make your home work harder for you. Pick one project that would make your home more appealing to future buyers and more enjoyable for you right now. For example:
- Refreshing tired kitchens or baths with simple cosmetic updates
- Adding storage, lighting, or curb appeal
- Tackling deferred maintenance that might scare off buyers later
Buyers in 2025 showed strong interest in homes with energy-efficient features and smart, comfortable spaces. Those preferences are likely to carry into 2026.
What Did 2025 Teach You About Home?
You may have spent this year watching neighbors list and sell quickly. Maybe you put in a few offers and lost out, or maybe you stayed on the sidelines because the numbers felt overwhelming.
Whatever your story, it contains valuable information.
- Did your current home serve your family well this year?
- Did you feel squeezed by space, location, or costs?
- Did the news about rates and prices leave you anxious, or did it motivate you to get more informed?
Real estate forecasts are important, but your lived experience in Rochester matters just as much.
Ready To Talk Through Your 2026 Plan?
NAR’s forecast points to more activity, steady price growth, and slowly improving affordability in 2026. For Rochester homeowners, that can be an opportunity to move closer to the life you actually want, not just react to headlines.
If you would like help turning these ideas into a concrete plan, Sharon Q Realty is here to walk through your options. We can:
- Review your home’s current value and equity
- Map out different move or stay scenarios.
- Connect you with trusted local lenders and contractors.
Your home is a big part of your story. As we close out this year in Rochester, this is a good moment to decide what you want that story to look like in 2026 and beyond.
